Summary:
- When ruling parties start to lose their grip, it often begins in once-loyal strongholds. Whether to independents or opposition-backed candidates, each loss sends a message that chips away at the narrative of invincibility especially when it takes place in regions once regarded as “Ijana Kwijana.”
OP-ED: Kisoro District isn’t just another voting area in Uganda it’s the lifeblood of the National Resistance Movement (NRM). Known for its unwavering support, Kisoro has consistently delivered some of the NRM’s most impressive victories, even surpassing results from President Museveni’s own home district, Kiruhura.
This loyalty has given rise to the term “Ijana Kwijana” (100% by 100%), symbolizing Kisoro’s near-total voting pattern in favor of the NRM.
The upcoming by-election here is more than just a local affair; it’s a critical moment with national implications for the NRM. A win would reaffirm the party’s strength and relevance across Uganda.
Conversely, a loss would send shockwaves through the NRM, indicating that even its most loyal base may be slipping. It’s a high-stakes moment, akin to the recent decline faced by Botswana’s Democratic Party after nearly six decades in power.
If the NRM loses this by-election, it could spell a symbolic and potentially existential threat to the party’s identity. A defection in Kisoro would suggest that if “Ijana Kwijana” can turn its back on the NRM, perhaps the rest of Uganda could as well.
Such a loss would invite intense scrutiny, with opponents seizing on it as evidence that the NRM’s influence is fading, even in its most steadfast districts.
Botswana’s Democratic Party (BDP) recently found itself struggling, relinquishing once-uncontested dominance after decades in power.
Similarly, Mozambique’s FRELIMO is facing criticism and a decline in popularity. Both parties are giants in Africa’s political landscape, once unshakeable forces. Yet, they are now learning that long-held power is no guarantee against a slide from public favor.
When ruling parties start to lose their grip, it often begins in once-loyal strongholds. Whether to independents or opposition-backed candidates, each loss sends a message that chips away at the narrative of invincibility especially when it takes place in regions once regarded as “Ijana Kwijana.”
In this context, the Kisoro District by-election for Woman Member of Parliament holds far greater significance than simply filling a seat. For the NRM, it’s more than a test of political strength; it’s a message to the entire nation.
Kisoro is a stronghold, and if the NRM stumbles here, it will signal a shift across the country a shift suggesting that the once-stalwart party is losing ground.
For NRM leaders, a victory in Kisoro isn’t just desirable; it’s a non-negotiable must. The eyes of Uganda are on Kisoro, and the implications of this by-election extend far beyond its borders.
Will the NRM reclaim its place as the unassailable force in Ugandan politics, or will it face the harsh reality of a shifting political landscape?
The answer lies in the hands of Kisoro’s voters, but one thing is certain: this is a battle that the NRM cannot afford to lose. If the NRM isn’t secure in Kisoro District, then it isn’t secure anywhere in Uganda.
The writer is Wilfred Arinda Nshekantebirwe, the LC5 Male Youth Councillor for Rubanda District.
