The Ministry of Water and Environment has issued an early warning about the possible development of an El Niño weather phenomenon during the second half of 2026, cautioning that it could bring above-normal rainfall and heightened risks of floods and landslides across many parts of Uganda.
In a weather advisory dated July 30, the ministry said global climate monitoring centres and the World Meteorological Organisation indicate an increased likelihood of an El Niño event developing later this year, with the possibility of persisting into 2027.
The ministry said El Niño, a naturally occurring climate phenomenon linked to warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, has historically been associated with enhanced rainfall in East Africa, including Uganda.
Officials warned that the anticipated rainfall could increase the risk of flooding, landslides, damage to infrastructure, disease outbreaks and disruption of livelihoods, particularly in flood-prone lowlands, urban centres with poor drainage systems, river catchment areas, wetlands and mountainous regions.
Although the exact magnitude of the event is still being assessed, preliminary climate outlooks suggest that several parts of the country are likely to receive above-normal rainfall during the September to December rainy season.
The ministry said it is continuously monitoring the evolution of the climate phenomenon through analysis of global, regional and national weather conditions and will continue issuing forecasts, advisories and early warning information to support preparedness and informed decision-making.
It urged government agencies, local leaders, communities and other stakeholders to strengthen disaster preparedness and response plans, clear drainage channels and flood pathways, avoid settlement and cultivation in flood- and landslide-prone areas, and enhance public awareness on early warning information.
The ministry also called for contingency planning in climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, health, transport, water resources and infrastructure, while advising the public to rely on official weather updates issued by the Department of Meteorological Services.
“The media is encouraged to support public awareness efforts by disseminating accurate and timely weather and climate information to communities across the country,” Permanent Secretary Dr Alfred Okot Okidi said in the advisory.
Okidi added that the ministry will continue providing regular updates on the anticipated 2026/2027 El Niño event, emphasising that “early warning and early action save lives, protect livelihoods and reduce disaster-related losses.”
The public has also been advised to follow official Ministry of Water and Environment communication channels for weather forecasts issued at six-hourly, daily, 10-day, 30-day and seasonal intervals.
